Oil prices recover after U.S. benchmark dipped into bear market this week
Chinese workers install scaffolding at an offshore oil engineering platform in Qingdao, part of China’s Shandong province.
Oil futures climbed for a second straight session Friday, with U.S prices paring their loss for the week after dipping into a bear market.
Prices got a boost from news of a possible resolution between the U.S. and Mexico over tariffs and some expectations that major oil producers will extend their production-cut agreement beyond this month’s expiration. Worries about weak energy demand and burdensome U.S. supplies had combined push benchmark prices into bear market territory this week.
West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery CLN19, +2.32% rose 85 cents, or 1.6%, to $53.44 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, moving back up from the five-month lows hit earlier this week. WTI is headed for a narrow 0.1% lower finish for the week.
WTI prices remained about 20% below the most recent high of $66.30 on April 23, according to Dow Jones Market Data. A bear market is traditionally marked by a drop of 20% or more from a recent high.
International benchmark August Brent BRNQ19, +2.27% was up 64 cents, or 1%, at $62.31 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Before the late-week rebound, front-month contract prices logged their lowest finish since Jan. 28 at midweek, nearly dropping back below $60. A finish below $59.656 would mark Brent’s entry into a bear market. Front-month futures are up 0.5% for the week.
“Prices are still reacting to news updates from Washington as investors remain nervous about ongoing Trump rhetoric with China and Mexico,” said Mihir Kapadia, chief executive officer of Sun Global Investments. “With indications of a slowing global economy, investors fear the tariffs would further downgrade manufacturing output and therefore oil demand.”
Oil, however, rose Friday over reports that Trump could postpone tariffs on Mexico, he said in a daily note. Prices had turned higher by Thursday’s settlement based on those reports.
Meanwhile, inventories have been rising. The Energy Information Administration this week reported that U.S. crude supplies rose by 6.8 million barrels for the week ended May 31. That was the largest weekly increase in five weeks.
There’s been speculation surrounding “big upward adjustments” to U.S. crude supplies that give the market a false impression of oversupply, said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group.
Data from the EIA released Wednesday included a supply adjustment factor of more than 800,000 barrels a day, the difference between reported supplies and those implied by production, refinery demand, imports and exports, according to a report from Bloomberg. That’s added up to more than 24 million barrels over the past four weeks, the report said.
“There are always a lot of estimates in the Weekly Petroleum Report, so without the adjustment factor it would never balance,” said James Williams, energy economist at WTRG Economics. “But lately, the adjustments are consistently high. Something is not showing up but it will take several months before they can identify it for certain.”
For now, “the most reliable measure is still in the stocks or inventory and those numbers have the greatest impact on the market,” said Williams.
Traders are also watching updates on a production-cut agreement between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major oil producers ahead of the deal’s expiration at the end of this month. The next OPEC meeting, which had been scheduled for June 25-26, may be postponed to early July at the request of Russia, according to some news reports.
“Positive signs from OPEC and partners have been the strong buoyant support for the commodity over several months, but we await clarity on Russia’s production strategy for the coming months,” said Kapadia. “The country has indicated it wants to re-assess their production strategy, especially to address their declining revenue stream.”
On Nymex, prices for natural gas traded little changed, with the July contract NGN19, +0.60% at $2.323 per million British thermal units. It was looking at a loss of 5.4% for the week, following U.S. government data Thursday that showed a larger-than-expected weekly rise in U.S. supplies of the fuel.
Also on Nymex, July gasoline RBN19, +1.03% rose 0.3% to $1.713 a gallon, trading down 3.2% for the week, and July heating HON19, +1.64% added 1.3% to $1.811 a gallon—down roughly 1.6% from the week-ago close.
“A solid U.S. job market underscores the potential strength in demand for gasoline during the upcoming U.S. summer driving season,” said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics. “Even though job gains slowed in May, the economy is at full employment and wages are up. Miles driven will be up this summer as well.”


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